SRQ-Property Pulse

2006-07-27T11:58:00.000-04:00

Housing outlook remains unchanged
No big surprises from NAR chief economist David Lereah regarding the housing outlook for the balance of the year: "Home sales will rise and fall month to month, but don't look for any big shifts one way or the other." His predictions:* Existing-home sales: Down 6.7 percent to 6.60 million in 2006 from 7.08 million last year. That would still be the third highest level on record. * Median existing-home price: Up 5.3 percent to $231,300 in 2006.* New-home sales: Down 12.8 percent this year to 1.12 million from 1.28 million in 2005.* Median new-home price: Up 1.0 percent this year to $243,300.* Housing starts: Down 6.8 percent to 1.93 million this year from 2.07 million in 2005. (The National Association of Home Builders' current forecast shows a 7.4 percent decline in total housing starts for 2006, followed by some further erosion in 2007.) * 30-year fixed-rate mortgage: 7.0 percent by the end of the year.* Unemployment rate: 4.7 percent in 2006.
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FAR: Statewide, local single-family home sales ease as market adjusts in June
Orlando Business Journal
Read More...
http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2006/07/24/daily21.html
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Home sales, prices down
MELISSA FOLLOWELL
Read More...
http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/business/15121315.htm
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Realtors: Home sales now a 'buyer's market'
Sales fell for third straight month in June; nearly flat prices make double-digit gains seem like a distant memory.
By Chris Isidore
Read More...
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/25/news/economy/homesales/index.htm?cnn=yes
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Five Ways to Play the Housing Slump
A survey of experts uncovers ways you can invest in real estate—or, at least, keep an eye on it—in preparation for the inevitable rebound
By Timothy J. Mullaney
Read More...
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2006/db20060724_689769.htm?chan=top+news_top+news
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Kolter changes Grande Sarasotan project
By STEPHEN FRATER
Read More...
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060724/BUSINESS/607240304/1439
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Priced out
Study shows depth of affordable-housing crisis
Read More...
http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/opinion/15097440.htm
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2006-07-15T12:21:00.000-04:00

Lakewood Ranch expansion approved
Sarasota County OKs a plan to bring 5,000 homes to the northern part of the county.
Read More...
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060713/NEWS/607130688---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Foxfire Golf Club shuts down
Developer pays $3.6 million for 188-acre public course
By KEVIN MCQUAID
Read More...
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060713/BUSINESS/607130710---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quay demolition in full swing
Building removal is first sign of activity since land was bought
By KEVIN MCQUAID
Read More...
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060715/BUSINESS/607150497

2006-07-06T11:36:00.000-04:00

Sarasota asked to consider 'sky plaza' to bayfront
By MIKE SAEWITZ for HERALD-TRIBUNE

Read More...
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060706/NEWS/607060503

2006-07-03T08:42:00.000-04:00

Two-tiered tax system not saving all homes
Part-time residents, investors may be pressured to leave.
By DOUG SWORD and PATRICK WHITTLE

Read more...
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060702/NEWS/607020515

Nobody Knows Everything About The Market

2006-07-01T11:24:00.000-04:00

Some home prices see first dip

May statistics may signal a return to more rational state
By STEPHEN FRATER and MICHAEL POLLICK

Bubble?...What Bubble?

2006-06-28T10:06:00.000-04:00

FSBO Web site sees its traffic plummeting
by Stephen Frater

In what may not be news to do-it-yourself Realtor-wannabes, Web traffic at ForSalebyOwner.com is off significantly since last year.
Bernice Ross, co-owner of Realestatecoach.com and author of "Waging War on Real Estate's Discounters," says that when the market softens, the FSBO sector goes disproportionately wobbly.
"An unrepresented seller marketing a single property has virtually no chance of appearing on major search engines in a prominent position," Ross wrote last week in Inman News, an industry Web site.
ForSalebyOwner.com, owned by Tribune Interactive, is the top-rated FSBO site on the Web, according to Alexa.com, which tracks Web traffic and rankings.
As the market slowed last year, the number of hits on ForSalebyOwner.com started to drop. At the same time, visits increased at the major "traditional" real estate sites, including ones owned by Coldwell Banker and Re/Max.
Ross' analysis indicates almost a 50 percent jump in "unique" traditional Realtor site visits and about a 60 percent drop-off in "unique" visits to FSBO sites since last summer.

Burke-Phillips joins SKY

In a sign that action may be slowing in the new-home sector, Michelle Burke-Phillips, a 25-year real estate sales expert formerly with Lee Wetherington Homes, Coldwell Banker and Michael Saunders & Co., is the latest senior realty executive to jump ship in Sarasota's roiling realty market.
Rumor had it that Burke-Phillips was being recruited by several local realty firms, including the newcomer from Naples, Premier Properties.
But she will join Sky Sotheby's International Realty as vice president and will lead the firm's residential and new home sales.
Burke-Phillips reports to Brandyn Herbold, chief executive officer, and Chad Roffers, president, as they continue to attempt to elevate Sky's expertise and market share in luxury real estate.
Burke-Phillips is a veteran of the Southwest Florida real estate market and has been a licensed real estate broker for decades.
Before joining Sky, she was the executive vice president of sales and marketing for Wetherington, where she was also responsible for new product development, new communities and oversight of the Wetherington Design Center.
Prior to working in the new homes arena, Burke-Phillips was the managing broker of the Naples Coldwell Banker offices and served as the vice president of residential sales at Saunders.
Sky's requirements of new Realtors include consistently listing 12 properties every year, achieving an average sales transaction above $750,000 and getting sales results that place them in the top 10 percent of local agents. Burke-Phillips is a former board member of the Sarasota Association of Realtors, a former director of the Sarasota County Arts Council, and she recently served on the board of directors of the Sarasota Film Festival. She also is a candidate for Sarasota County court mediator.

New Westwater HQ opens

Mark Miller's Westwater Construction Inc. has moved into a new 30,000-square-foot headquarters at 1074 N. Orange Ave. in Sarasota.
The building will eventually put all Westwater-related entities under one roof including Westwater, Artisan Stone, Sarasota Select Properties, Marine Upholstery Technologies and US Surface Protection. Westwater remodeled the inside and work is under way on redecorating the outside. The interior was created by Mark Dalton Design.

Housing report surprises economistsConstruction and sales increase in U.S. in May.
By STEPHEN FRATER

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060627/BUSINESS/606270343

More From Economist David Lareah

2006-06-23T11:34:00.000-04:00

Housing market in transitionNational Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah came to South Florida on Tuesday to discuss the future of housing in the region.

BY MATTHEW HAGGMAN

The housing standoff between buyers and sellers in South Florida will continue for another six months, and then prices in some areas will fall, a real estate trade group economist predicted Tuesday.

In some cases prices may fall by 10 percent to 15 percent, said David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, who spoke Tuesday in Coral Gables. But in many areas prices will still rise modestly this year, by 4 percent to 5 percent, he said. And when sellers finally bring asking prices down, pent-up demand will likely result in hordes of new buyers in South Florida.

The long-expected shakeout of the real estate market now underway is healthy for a region both overbuilt with new condominiums and overrun by speculators, Lereah said. Unlike in previous real estate downturns, the economic and demographic fundamentals underpinning South Florida real estate remain strong, he added.

So strong, in fact, that the Washington, D.C.-based economist is looking to buy some investment properties here himself.

''We are not in a crisis but a transition,'' said Lereah, speaking Tuesday at the International Real Estate Congress and Expo. ``I am very bullish in the long term for real estate in Florida.''
Lereah pegged the end of the housing boom to August 2005. That's when mortgage rates crept up and speculators fled.

Now, he said, home sales are declining. And the inventory of homes for sale has ballooned because stubborn sellers refuse to lower prices and buyers are ever willing to wait it out. Ultimately, he said, sellers will relent.

''When a transitioning market cools, it's the sales that drop first, and then prices,'' Lereah said.
Prices are likely to drop more for condos than for single-family homes, he said.

But in the long term, he is optimistic. Baby boomers continue to move here, international demand remains strong, unemployment in South Florida is low, and mortgage rates -- despite inching higher in recent months -- are still at historically low levels.

Just as important, Lereah said, the speculators are fleeing the market. He contends that speculators are most to blame for huge price hikes.

''Florida will be better for it with them gone,'' he said.

Lereah cited the increased threat of hurricanes and the availability of property insurance as South Florida's two biggest worries. Such worries, he said, are prompting some baby boomer and retirees to look away from Florida.

He noted a trend of baby boomers moving to places such as the Smoky Mountains in Tennessee and North Carolina.
But not Lereah.
''I was at another conference down here recently,'' he said. ``I drove around looking at property myself.''

So where is the chief economist for the national Realtor association buying?

''I am not telling,'' he said.

Commercial Outlook

2006-06-23T11:21:00.000-04:00

Experts discuss outlook for commercial real estate

Jack Snyder
Sentinel Staff Writer

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-iparks16_106jun16,0,5986752.story?coll=orl-business-headlines

Reasons to stay "bullish" on Florida real estate market

2006-06-23T11:12:00.000-04:00

From David Lereah, Economist for National Association of Realtors

3 Million in Sales in 1991

8 Million Sales in 2005 of which 40% were second homes

Interest rates still low and there are 78 million boomers buying second homes, downsizing, investing

Market is cooling in upper Florida by 10%

Lower state is cooling by 30%

There will be a soft landing to this downturn because the local economies are healthy

The past 5 years has been a strong sellers market – we are now transitioning into a buyers market – the transition will last 3 months to a year.

International Money is the “X” Factor – We get a significant amount of funding from Latin America. $21 Billion so far in 2006 foreign money

15% of sales in Florida involved Foreign Money

MIGRATION TO FLORIDA

1 Million new residents a year are coming to Florida; the closest state to us is Arizona with 400,000

Florida is the number one job creation state

75,000 legal immigrants came to Florida in 2005

3 – 4% Job Growth Rate in Florida

Florida’s biggest problem is affordable insurance

Florida – Sales of single family homes were down 31% statewide compared to last year and prices were up 13%

Sales of Condos were down 37% and prices were up 4%

YTD down 25% in sales – based on supply there is about a 16 month supply

Good News – We have the best demographic trends in country

On Rising Insurance Costs. We are looking out for your best interests!

2006-06-23T11:01:00.000-04:00

State Realtors head calls for affordable catastrophe insurance

By Linda Rawls
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/business/epaper/2006/06/22/0622realtors.html

Interesting article I read in Inman News about housing

2006-06-23T10:47:00.000-04:00

"I believe that the California market is being mirrored by Florida in many different ways. That being said, I think this article can apply to housing here in south Florida as well as CA. "

USC experts predict 'soft landing' in real estateReal estate prices won't decline substantially

Friday, June 23, 2006

By Glenn Roberts Jr.Inman News

SAN FRANCISCO -- Unless there are substantial job losses, the real estate market appears on track for a soft landing, said economists for University of Southern California's Lusk Center for Real Estate.
"We don't believe the housing market is going to fall off a cliff. We don't really subscribe to the hard-landing story," said Stuart Gabriel, Lusk Center director, during a presentation Thursday at the annual PCBC event, a conference for home builders held at San Francisco's Moscone Center.
This is, however, a time of "stagflation," or economic stagnation coupled with inflation, Gabriel said, and the real estate market is losing steam -- with a general slowing in price-appreciation and sales.
Higher interest rates and energy costs, and reduced refinancing activity are also taking a toll on consumer spending, which has sunk from about 3.9 percent in 2004 to a current level of about 3 percent.
Despite this, Gabriel said it's unlikely that there will be a major shrinkage in house prices, given the strength of employment numbers. Interest rates, though marching up, are not high by historic standards, he said.
The situation was a lot different in the early 1990s, when job losses contributed to a major downturn in the real estate market. Gabriel said that the impact of job losses in the aerospace sector hit Southern California's real estate market hard during that period.
"Barring that sort of event we don't expect significant falloff in house prices," he said.
Likewise, job losses in the construction and real estate-related industries during this slowing period should not cripple the housing industry, said Raphael Bostic, director of the Master of Real Estate Development program at USC and a Lusk Center expert.
Gabriel's forecast calls for the economy to slow to a 3 percent to 3.5 rate of real gross domestic product growth for the remainder of the year after a rate of about 5 percent in the first quarter.
Delores Conway, director of USC's Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast who also participated in the presentation, said that in California, rising home prices appear to be driving more housing activity to central areas.
"The population is shifting in California more toward the center of the state, where we tend to have more affordable housing," she said.
Some major markets in the state, such as Los Angeles, are still seeing high levels of price appreciation, though sales activity is down from a peak. "The number of sales has declined very significantly in all the cities," she said.
The apartment market, meanwhile, has rebounded in some areas as shrinking housing affordability has diminished the pool of potential home buyers.
"People are in some sense being priced out of the market," she said, while there are year-to-year rental increases of 7 percent to 10 percent in some Southern California markets.
USC economists noted that condo markets -- particularly in formerly frenzied areas such as San Diego and Las Vegas -- might be the most vulnerable to changing market conditions.
Conway said that some proposed condo projects will actually be built out as apartments because unit sales fell short of expectations. "This is particularly true in San Diego, which has been a bit of a bellwether and a bit of a leading indicator for the rest of the cities," she said.
There is no evidence of price declines in any California markets at this point, though, "If we do see price declines, where we would probably look for them first is in the condo markets," Conway said.
Bostic said, "I've been concerned about downtown San Diego for a long time, particularly in the condo market." He also said the luxury real estate market may feel the weight of the housing slowdown more than the general market.
But he said he is generally bullish on the housing sector, and he noted that the Lusk Center is not predicting a recession.
"I don't think price declines are likely at all, absent significant job loss," he said.
As available land dwindles and housing affordability worsens in California, Gabriel said he expects that buyers will increasingly gravitate toward multi-family dwellings.
Regulators have turned their attention to the popularity of unconventional home loan products and the risk that such products could pose, though the Lusk Center experts said they expect the use of such products will not have a substantial negative effect on the housing market.

Real Estate News:

2006-06-14T14:52:00.000-04:00

Developer creating model of new Quay
Most Sarasota projects go without such a 3-D view.
By KEVIN MCQUAID
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060614/BUSINESS/606140419
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------FLORIDA FACTS

Still Growing StrongFrom Florida Realtor magazine, June 2006 page 6 http://www.planetrealtor.com/Florida/FLRealtorMagazine/BizLine0606.cfm
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------LANDSCAPING IMPROVEMENTS PAY OFF
Money spent sprucing up the yard with trees, shrubs, lighting, and patios is well spent -- especially when it comes time to sell the home, a new study says. The report, by Arbor National Mortgage, found that 84 percent of real estate professionals believe a house on a treed lot would fetch at least 20 percent more than one on a lot without trees. Another of the company's surveys suggested that while shelling out for top-of-the line landscaping may only bring in an additional 4 percent to 5 percent, spending minimal amounts has a penalty. Home with average landscaping sell for 20 percent more than homes with just fair landscaping.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, Lew Sichelman (6/11/06)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Real estate Web traffic is booming
ComScore reports 23% rise in unique visitors
Traffic to real estate sites monitored by Web research firm comScore Media Metrix increased 23 percent from April 2005 to April 2006, from 34.7 million unique visitors to 42.7 million unique visitors.

The number of unique visitors to real estate sites rose 12.3 percent in April 2006 compared to March 2006, comScore Media Metrix also reported.
The Move Inc. (formerly Homestore) network of Web sites, which includes Realtor.com and Move.com, topped the list in April with 11.1 million unique visitors, up 8 percent from April 2005 and 15.3 percent from March 2006.
MSN Real Estate improved 56.7 percent from March 2006 to April 2006 and climbed to second on the list, growing from 3.7 million unique visitors in March 2006 to 5.8 million unique visitors in April 2006, comScore reported.

HomeGain was third on the list with 4.3 million unique visitors in April, down from 4.8 million in March; AOL Real Estate was fourth with 3.9 million unique users; RealtyTrac.com was fifth with 2.9 million; Rent.com was sixth with 2.8 million; ServiceMagic was seventh with 2.7 million; followed by Apartments.com in eighth with 2.5 million, Zillow.com in ninth with 2.3 million; and RE/MAX International Inc. at 10th with 2.2 million.

Yahoo! Real Estate, ColdwellBanker.com, HouseValues sites, ForRent.com sites, Century21.com, Primedia, Homes.com, Netscape Home and Real Estate, Homescape.com and Living Choices Web sites also ranked in the top 20 in April for unique visitors among real estate sites.
Zillow.com's unique visitors increased 1.9 percent from March to April while the site slipped from eighth to ninth in the rankings.

The real estate category of Web sites tracked by Media Metrix has seen some major growth over the past few months, with unique visitors to the category growing 18.5 from February to March. By comparison, the total unique visitors at all Internet sites tracked by Media Metrix grew 2.8 percent during that time.
Source: Inman News, Friday, May 12, 2006

2006-06-13T13:35:00.000-04:00

Welcome to SRQ-Property Pulse, the definitive blog site on Sarasota Real Estate created by me, Eric Grenier. I recently moved from Miami where I started my real estate career. My parents urged me to relocate to Sarasota after their real estate careers had taken off. We are now collectively known as the Grenier Group under the Coldwell Banker umbrella.

We have many accolades collected to date but the one that sticks out most, the one that carries the most weight so to speak, is the Five Star recognition by Sarasota Magazine as the Best in Client Satisfaction. The magazine surveyed home buyers and sellers in 2005, compiled the information, and awarded the top 7% of Realtors in Sarasota with this honor.

In keeping with client satisfaction, and our business mantra "Service Beyond Excellence", I have decided to write this blog to compliment the services we provide as Realtors. Buying or selling a home can be a tedious and trying task. The purpose of this blog is to feed your hunger for information about Sarasota real estate and on the market trends that I see happening here in beautiful, sunny Sarasota.

I hope you find this information useful. Check back periodically as I will try to update the "Pulse" as frequently as possible. You can also visit our website at www.greniergroup.com . There you can browse the multple listing service and view properties currently on the market.

Happy blogging!

Eric